Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Obama, McCain, and Abortion

One out of 10 voters think Obama is against abortion, and 17% think McCain is for legalized abortion. Kinda stunning numbers, given the history and party identification and all the rest.

So who is right, who is wrong? Party identification doesn't seem to affect being correct on either candidate's abortion stand, according to a Pew poll. GOPers and Dems and Indies are all about the same. Ditto for men versus women.

But age and education, those tell a different story. And a surprising one.

18-29-year-olds are better able to identify correctly Obama and McCain's abortion positions than are oldsters. This goes against the grain of most political knowledge findings in which age is positively associated with knowledge. The education results bring us back to familiar territory: the more educated, the more accurate. Whew!

Finally, the "unaffiliated" in terms of religion are more accurate than the various other religious categories created by Pew (evangelical Prod, mainline Prod, and white non-Hispanic Catholics). This is perhaps misleading since, especially evangelical Protestants, tend to be of lower education levels. Control statistically for education and this probably disappears.

The nut graph? A lot of people misread the candidate stands on at least one significant issue, in general the less educated and older folks out there. How this is turned into votes, no one can say, because this is probably the same group of tuned-out people you won't see in line on election day.

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