Hollander, Barry A. (in press). "The Surprised loser: The Role of Electoral Expectations and News Media Exposure in Satisfaction with Democracy." Journalism
and Mass Communication Quarterly.
Abstract: While scholars have long noted the gap between electoral winners and losers in terms of satisfaction with democracy, there has been less success in identifying the underlying causes of this gap. This research tests whether electoral expectation may play a role. People typically predict their preferred candidate will win an election, an effect called wishful thinking, and this is examined through analysis of national survey data from the 2012 presidential election to determine whether those who expected their candidate to win, but were "surprised losers," are more negative about the election, democracy, and trust in government. In addition, while the news media are often mentioned in winner-loser research, rarely is exposure to the news included in analysis. Data from the same respondents interviewed before and after the election demonstrate that the gap indeed exists and exposure to the news, in particular Fox News Channel, resulted in greater wishful thinking among supporters of Mitt Romney and less satisfaction with democracy.
Abstract: While scholars have long noted the gap between electoral winners and losers in terms of satisfaction with democracy, there has been less success in identifying the underlying causes of this gap. This research tests whether electoral expectation may play a role. People typically predict their preferred candidate will win an election, an effect called wishful thinking, and this is examined through analysis of national survey data from the 2012 presidential election to determine whether those who expected their candidate to win, but were "surprised losers," are more negative about the election, democracy, and trust in government. In addition, while the news media are often mentioned in winner-loser research, rarely is exposure to the news included in analysis. Data from the same respondents interviewed before and after the election demonstrate that the gap indeed exists and exposure to the news, in particular Fox News Channel, resulted in greater wishful thinking among supporters of Mitt Romney and less satisfaction with democracy.
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