My presentation will:
- Briefly discuss how previous studies establish electoral losers are more negative about government and elections than are electoral winners. Democracy rests on the consent of the losers.
- Argue that losers can be divided into two types -- those who expected to lose, and those surprised by the loss.
- Further argue that surprised losers may explain the winner-loser differences seen in previous studies. In other words, surprised losers are more pissed by the election results, and thus more negative.
- Analyze data from 1952 to 2012 to examine this point.
- Provide a deeper analysis of the 2004 and 2012 elections in which incumbents ran for re-election, one from each party.
- Look briefly at the news media's role in all this.
- Leave and go to the beach (conference is in San Juan, Puerto Rico).
- Of those before an election who said they would vote Democratic, 74.5 percent expected a Democrat to win.
- Of those before an election who said they would vote Republican, 78.4 percent expected a Republican to win.
On another day I'll continue this, breaking down whether surprised losers indeed differ from expected losers in terms of trust in goverment, the fairness of the election, and trust in democracy. Stay tuned.